Explains why new-builds won't sell from @thealexbranford
The creator reacts to a clip about unsold new-build flats in London and provides a detailed economic breakdown of the situation. He explains that the flats were priced years ago when interest rates were low, and now developers cannot lower prices without crystallizing a cash loss and breaching bank covenants. Using animated graphics, he illustrates the concept of a development appraisal and explains that developers are in a 'Mexican standoff,' holding onto empty stock and hoping the market rises, all while bleeding finance costs. He concludes by showing a screenshot of a text he sent to a friend, using it as proof of his foresight and warning viewers against buying new-builds due to overpricing and high service charges.
Creator: @thealexbranford on Instagram
Video format
Talking Head Edit
Video outline
- State a surprising paradox
- Reveal the hidden system
- Predict the inevitable outcome
- Show personal validation
Narrative framework
The Insider's Prophecy
Narrative framework logic
Deconstructing a widely observed but misunderstood problem by revealing a hidden systemic flaw, explaining the resulting stalemate, and predicting its inevitable collapse, all validated by personal foresight.
Topics: Real Estate, Economics, Finance, Personal Finance
Concepts: Breakdown, Opportunity Explainer, Social Proof Showcase
Formats: Talking Head Edit
Elements: Graphic Overlay, Screenshot as Evidence, Picture-in-Picture, Jump Cut
Account types: Personal Brand
Transcript excerpt
That is astonishing. There's a deluge of new built apartments currently in London. Nobody wants them. I know why they don't want them. They're far too expensive because they were priced at a time when money was basically free, and now we're seeing the consequences. Every single one of those 22,000 flats was priced years ago on a development appraisal. There's a fixed land worst, fixed build worst. Tier guess what the market can afford in four, five years, and they only make money if that guest lands. Do you remember how pricing was in 2021? But the market hasn't landed on their best. So you expect the prices are gonna drop. Right? They can't. Because if the developer sells below the number in their appraisal, they crystallize a cash loss. So cutting the price is a death sentence in this case. So they don't cut. They drip out a couple of units a quarter just to keep cash flow fresh. They hope and pray that pricing will rise, and they can stall out and delay it. So that's 22,000 units all doing the same thing at once across the whole market. It's like a Mexican standoff, and every single one of them will be bleeding finance costs whilst they sell unsold flats whilst they're waiting.
443,753 views